The one you bought.
$3,197
Gain captured
+32.0%Share price
- At publication
- 2.94
- Note's target
- 4.30
- Later price
- 3.88
The note put a 4.30 target on a 2.94 share and showed the fleet economics behind it. You took the position.
Agentic-AI Equity Research
Wall Street Grade. Objective Price Targets.
Give it a ticker. You get back the research that would take weeks.
What you get back
Sample
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)
Initiation · 11 Sep 2026
Price (11 Sep)US$648.03
Target PriceUS$635.00
Implied return(1.7)%
52-Week Range520.26 – 790.80
Market CapUS$1,659bn
Enterprise ValueUS$1,663bn
Prepared byThe research pipeline,
under your own byline and
branding — every source linked
under your own byline and
branding — every source linked
Investment summary
We initiate coverage of Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META) with a Neutral / Market Perform rating and a 12-month price target of US$635, 2.0% below the 11 September 2026 close of US$648.03. Our target blends a ten-year discounted cash flow at a 9.64% weighted average cost of capital (50% weight, US$583 per share), trading comparables (40%, US$688) and precedent transactions (10%, US$658).
Meta is the largest digital advertising business in the world on current forecasts, with US$228.2bn of trailing-twelve-month revenue, a 48.0% trailing EBITDA margin and 3.60bn daily users. It is also, in 2026, a company spending US$137bn on property and equipment in a single year, funded partly with US$55bn of senior notes issued in November 2025 and May 2026.
The advertising franchise deserves a premium; the capital programme that surrounds it does not yet earn one.
■The advertising engine is compounding faster than the market it competes in. Revenue grew 22% in FY2025 to US$200.97bn and then accelerated: Q2 2026 revenue rose 28% to US$60.80bn, with average price per ad up 12% and impressions up 14%. EMARKETER forecasts a 26.8% share of global digital ad spending in 2026, placing Meta ahead of Alphabet for the first time.
■Capital intensity, not competitive position, is what sets the valuation. Capital expenditure including finance leases is guided to US$130–145bn in FY2026, equal to 54.5% of our forecast revenue. Unlevered free cash flow is negative US$39.0bn in FY2026E before turning positive in FY2028E, so 76% of our DCF enterprise value sits in the terminal period.
■The debate is binary on whether US$137bn of annual capex earns its cost of capital. Our bear case values the shares at US$221 and our bull case at US$753; at 20/60/20 probabilities the weighted DCF value is US$543. The 2.6x spread between bear and bull is the widest of any large-cap technology franchise we cover, which is why we carry 20% of the weight outside the DCF and hold the rating at Neutral.
■Relative valuation offers support, but at the level capital intensity warrants. Meta trades on 11.9x forward EBITDA and 21.0x forward operating earnings against a peer median of 15.1x and 20.9x. Applying peer medians to our model's forward figures implies US$638–US$823 per share, and precedent transactions imply US$406–US$774.
| US$m unless stated | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 134,902 | 164,501 | 200,966 | 252,082 | 295,401 |
| Revenue growth (%) | 16.1 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 25.4 | 17.2 |
| EBITDA | 57,929 | 84,878 | 101,892 | 113,517 | 148,426 |
| EBITDA margin (%) | 42.9 | 51.6 | 50.7 | 45.0 | 50.2 |
| Operating income | 46,751 | 69,380 | 83,276 | 84,699 | 104,277 |
| Operating margin (%) | 34.7 | 42.2 | 41.4 | 33.6 | 35.3 |
| Diluted EPS (US$) | 14.87 | 23.86 | 23.49 | 30.19 | 33.37 |
| Free cash flow | 42,789 | 52,103 | 43,585 | 4,471 | 23,776 |
| Capex incl. finance leases | 28,324 | 39,225 | 72,215 | 137,384 | 141,792 |
| Capex (% of revenue) | 21.0 | 23.8 | 35.9 | 54.5 | 48.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 15.3x | 17.5x | 15.2x | 11.9x | 10.1x |
Recommendation: Neutral / Market Perform. Meta offers the best advertising growth in the top tier and the weakest free-cash-flow conversion of any mega-cap platform in 2026, because capital expenditure absorbs 54.5% of revenue. Our valuation range of US$440–US$785 spans a bear case in which the AI build never earns its cost of capital and a bull case in which capital intensity normalises while advertising growth stays near 20%. We would revisit the rating on a stated capital-intensity glide path, evidence of AI infrastructure returns, or a resumption of buybacks.
Your publication12 Sep 2026 · 8 min read
SK hynix: peak-cycle earnings, full-cycle valuation
By your name · Published under your own masthead
SK hynix is the world's leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory and the second-largest DRAM manufacturer, and it is in the most profitable period in the history of the memory industry. Revenue of W97.1tn in FY2025 has already been surpassed by W131.9tn in the first half of FY2026 alone — a period in which the second quarter printed a 76% operating margin.
PriceW1,812,000
TargetW1,600,000
Downside11.7%
EV/EBITDA4.9x
The cheapest large memory franchise on trailing multiples — which is precisely the point. The shares trade at 8.1x last-twelve-month EV/EBITDA and 8.2x trailing earnings against peer medians of 15.8x and 22.0x. But those twelve months are the peak of the cycle — W143.6tn of EBITDA against W36.0tn in FY2024 — while each peer's window straddles a different point of the same cycle. The discount is a statement about cycle position, not about franchise quality.
Figure 1 — Common share price (KRX: 000660) and ADS price (Nasdaq: SKHY)
Source: Monthly closing prices, KRX line October 2024 – 11 September 2026 and the Nasdaq ADS line since the 10 July 2026 listing.
The valuation is a barbell, not a point. The bear case — supply additions arriving into weaker demand, revenue peaking in 2027 — is worth W976,546, some 46% below the current price. The bull case is W2,452,662, or 35% above it. Weighted 25/50/25, the probability-weighted expected value is W1,662,561, within 8% of where the shares trade. This is a high-variance stock rather than an obviously expensive one, and I would become a buyer below roughly W1,350,000.
“A US investor paying today's ADS price accepts a materially lower expected return than a Korean investor buying the identical economic interest.”
What would make me wrong. The bull case has undersupply persisting through 2028, revenue compounding at 39.7% to FY2030 and the terminal EBITDA margin holding at 72.3%. Here is what has to be true for that, and why I think the 2029 trough in my base case is the more likely shape…
Page one of a real write-up, produced 12 September 2026 and not maintained. Positions and disclosures run at the foot of every published post. Not investment advice.
A full equity research report of 40–50 pages, built on a live .xlsx model that ships with the client-ready licence.
Real pages from completed runs, shown as produced and not maintained — prices, estimates and ratings are stale by design. Not investment advice.
How it works
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What it's worth
Clarity before you invest.
A clear valuation helps you decide what to buy and what to pass on.
SampleIllustrative cases, not a live track record
Based on a $10,000 positionThe one you passed on.
$1,381
Loss avoided
-13.8%Share price
- At publication
- 26.80
- Note's target
- 21.00
- Later price
- 23.10
The note put a 21.00 target on a 26.80 share and showed the contract roll-offs behind it. You stayed out.
Worked examples, not published calls. No real company is named. Price moves are measured from the close at publication; cash figures assume a $10,000 position and exclude dealing costs. Not investment advice.
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A note from the founder
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